Hollywood is Dumb

The title is meant to be read in the voice of Dark Helmet, when he says, "Evil will always triumph, because Good ... is dumb."

But I digress. Hollywood is dumb. Why is Hollywood dumb? Because, according to MSNBC, the top 10 highest paid actresses in Hollywood are as follows:

1. Reese Witherspoon
2. Angeline Jolie
3. Cameron Diaz
4. Nicole Kidman
5. Renee "Jewel" Zellweger
6. Sandra Bullock
7. Julia Roberts
8. Drew Barrymore
9. Jodie Foster
10. Halle Berry

(As a sidenote, I obviously went out of my way to find bad pictures of these actresses, by doing Google searches like "Angelina Jolie ugly" and "Nicole Kidman ugly." But for Drew Barrymore, all it took was "Drew Barrymore." Seriously. Also, there's no such thing as a bad pic of Halle Berry. I gave up searching.)

What do these ten have in common? Aside from the fact that they've never been in my kitchen, they all share a major trait - their inclusion in a movie's cast will make me 0% more likely (and in the cases of Witherspoon, Kidman, Zellweger, Roberts and Barrymore, significantly less likely) to see that movie.

My opinion must be anomalistic, right? Surely, these ladies bring in the box office bucks (which is frankly the only reason to pay them so much), right? Let's look at their movies released in 2006 & 2007.

1. RW - Rendition ($10 million gross)

2. AJ - A Mighty Heart ($9 million); the Good Shephard ($60 million, but note that she starred opposite Matt Damon, and this was the only of his last four movies to make under $115 million. Also starring Robert DeNiro)

3. CD - The Holiday ($60 million) (I refuse to count cartoons)

4. NK - Margot at the Wedding ($2 million); the Invasion ($15 million)

5. RZ - Miss Potter ($3 million)

6. SB - Premonition ($48 million); Infamous ($1 million); The Lake House ($52 million)

7. JR - Charlie Wilson's War ($66 million, but second billed to Tom Hanks. 14 of Hanks' last 19 films have grossed $100 million.)

8. DB - Lucky You ($6 million); Music & Lyrics ($51 million)

9. JF - The Brave One ($36 million); Inside Man ($89 million, billed 3rd behind Denzell Washington and Clive Owen)

10. HB - Things We Lost in the Fire ($3 million); Perfect Stranger ($24 million); X-Men: Geeks Beat Off ($234 million).

As of 2003, the average budget for an Oscar nominated film was $66 million. Let's presume that Oscar-worthy films cost more than the average film (a presumption that I'm guessing is false), and let's also presume that there has been no inflation in the last 5 years (a presumption I know is false). So let's say that the average budget of a major motion picture is $60 million.

If that is the case, then the 18 films made by the top ten actresses break down as such:

- 8 of 18 (44%) grossed less than 15 million, meaning a loss of at least $45 million for the studio.

- 15 of 18 (83%) failed to make a profit

- 3 of 18 (17%) made a profit. Those three were Charlie Wilson's war, starring Tom Hanks, who must be the most successful box office draw of our generation; Inside Man, where Jodie Foster is billed third behind Denzell Washington and Clive Owen; and X-Men, which has a loyal following of nerds who would go if the movie starred Kirstie Alley.



So who is making money? Franchises. 6 of the top 10 movies in 2007 were franchises (Spider Man, Shrek, Pirates of the Caribbean, Harry Potter, Bourne, and National Treasure). Also movies that are cartoons or ostensibly children's movies. The top 12 included Spider Man, Shrek, Transformers, Harry Potter, Alvin & the Chipmunks, Ratatouille and the Simpsons.

If you ignore those two categories, these were the highest grossing movies of 2007:

1. I am Legend
2. 300
3. Wild Hogs(!)
4. Knocked Up
5. American Gangster
6. Juno
7. Superbad
8. I know Pronounce You Chuck & Larry
9. Blades of Glory
10. Ghost Rider

In 2006, the list looks like this:

1. The DaVinci Code
2. The Pursuit of Happyness
3. Talledega Nights
4. Click
5. The Departed
6. Borat
7. Devil Wears Prada
8. The Breakup
9. Dreamgirls
10. Failure to Launch

Of those 20 movies, how many lead actors or actresses drew people to the theaters on their own? I'd argue the list is Will Smith (I am Legend, Pursuit of Happyness), Denzell Washington (American Gangster), Michael Cera (Juno & Superbad - just kidding - sort of), Adam Sandler (Click & Chuck & Larry), Will Ferrell (Blades & Talledega Nights), and Borat (Borat). The only actresses who could even make an argument are Aniston in the Breakup, SJ Parker in Failure to Launch, and Meryl Streep in Devil Wears Prada. And all three are big reaches.

So here's my simple Econ lesson for Hollywood executives. Unless you want to run your business like the New York Knicks, spend your money as follows:

(1) Franchises. Full of adventure, and with as many episodes as possible.
(2) Animation / children. And don't waste your money on voices. Spend it on Pixar.
(3) Will Smith, Denzell Washington, Adam Sandler, Will Ferrell and Tom Hanks.
(4) Jessica Biel.

That is all.